Reality of Decision making

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Decision making can be regarded as the mental processes (cognitive process) resulting in the selection of a course of action among several alternative scenarios. Every decision making process produces a final choice.^[1] The output can be an action or an opinion of choice.

Overview

Human performance in decision terms has been the subject of active research from several perspectives. From a psychological perspective, it is necessary to examine individual decisions in the context of a set of needs, preferences an individual has and values they seek. From a cognitive perspective, the decision making process must be regarded as a continuous process integrated in the interaction with the environment. From a normative perspective, the analysis of individual decisions is concerned with the logic of decision making and rationality and the invariant choice it leads to.^[2]

Yet, at another level, it might be regarded as a problem solving activity which is terminated when a satisfactory solution is reached. Therefore, decision making is a reasoning or emotional process which can be rational or irrational, can be based on explicit assumptions or tacit assumptions.

One must keep in mind that most decisions are made unconsciously. Jim Nightingale, Author of Think Smart-Act Smart, states that "we simply decide without thinking much about the decision process." In a controlled environment, such as a classroom, instructors encourage students to weigh pros and cons before making a decision. However in the real world, most of our decisions are made unconsciously in our mind because frankly, it would take too much time to sit down and list the pros and cons of each decision we must make on a daily basis.

Logical decision making is an important part of all science-based professions, where specialists apply their knowledge in a given area to making informed decisions. For example, medical decision making often involves making a diagnosis and selecting an appropriate treatment. Some research using naturalistic methods shows, however, that in situations with higher time pressure, higher stakes, or increased ambiguities, experts use intuitive decision making rather than structured approaches, following a recognition primed decision approach to fit a set of indicators into the expert's experience and immediately arrive at a satisfactory course of action without weighing alternatives. Recent robust decision efforts have formally integrated uncertainty into the decision making process. However, Decision Analysis, recognized and included uncertainties with a structured and rationally justifiable method of decision making since its conception in 1964.

A major part of decision making involves the analysis of a finite set of alternatives described in terms of some evaluative criteria. These criteria may be benefit or cost in nature. Then the problem might be to rank these alternatives in terms of how attractive they are to the decision maker(s) when all the criteria are considered simultaneously. Another goal might be to just find the best alternative or to determine the relative total priority of each alternative (for instance, if alternatives represent projects competing for funds) when all the criteria are considered simultaneously. Solving such problems is the focus of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) also known as multi-criteria decision making (MCDM). This area of decision making, although it is very old and has attracted the interest of many researchers and practitioners, is still highly debated as there are many MCDA / MCDM methods which may yield very different results when they are applied on exactly the same data.^[3] This leads to the formulation of a decision making paradox.

Problem Analysis vs Decision Making

It is important to differentiate between problem analysis and decision making. The concepts are completely separate from one another. Problem analysis must be done first, then the information gathered in that process may be used towards decision making.^[4]

Problem Analysis

• Analyze performance, what should the results be against what they actually are
• Problems are merely deviations from performance standards
• Problem must be precisely identified and described
• Problems are caused by some change from a distinctive feature
• Something can always be used to distinguish between what has and hasn't been effected by a cause
• Causes to problems can be deducted from relevant changes found in analyzing the problem
• Most likely cause to a problem is the one that exactly explains all the facts

Decision Making

• Objectives must first be established
• Objectives must be classified and placed in order of importance
• Alternative actions must be developed
• The alternative must be evaluated against all the objectives
• The alternative that is able to achieve all the objectives is the tentative decision
• The tentative decision is evaluated for more possible consequences
• The decisive actions are taken, and additional actions are taken to prevent any adverse consequences from becoming problems and starting both systems (problem analysis and decision making) all over again
• There are steps that are generally followed that result in a decision model that can be used to determine an optimal production plan.^[5]
• In a situation featuring conflict, role-playing is helpful for predicting decisions to be made by involved parties.^[6]

Decision Planning

Making a decision without planning is fairly common, but does not often end well. Planning allows for decisions to be made comfortably and in a smart way. Planning makes decision making a lot more simpler than it is. Decision will get four benefits out of planning: 1. Planning give chance to the establishment of independent goals. It is a conscious and directed series of choices. 2. Planning provides a standard of measurement. It is is a measurement of whether you are going towards or further away from your goal. 3. Planning converts values to action. You think twice about the plan and decide what will help advance your plan best. 4. Planning allows to limited resources to be committed in an orderly way. Always govern the use of what is limited to you (e.g money, time, etc..) ^[7]

Everyday techniques

Some of the decision making techniques people use in everyday life include:

• Pros and Cons: Listing the advantages and disadvantages of each option, popularized by Plato and Benjamin Franklin. Contrast the costs and benefits of all alternatives. Also called Rational decision making.
• Simple Prioritization: Choosing the alternative with the highest probability-weighted utility for each alternative (see Decision Analysis)
• Satisficing: Examine alternatives only until an acceptable one is found.
• Acquiesce to a person in authority or an "expert", just following orders
• Flipism: Flipping a coin, cutting a deck of playing cards, and other random or coincidence methods
• Prayer, tarot cards, astrology, augurs, revelation, or other forms of divination
• Taking the most opposite action compared to the advice of mistrusted authorities (parents, police officers, partners ...)
• Opportunity cost: calculating the opportunity cost of each options and decide the decision.
• Bureaucratic: Set up criteria for automated decisions.
• Political: Negotiate choices among interest groups.

Source  : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_making

Conclusion          : in reality, the decision is the most important thing to be possessed by a leader or manager. This will determine a choice for the future that will occur in a group or business association. some aspects in the decision to note and follow suit in stages and the rules of taking a decision.